A debate is reaching a crescendo in Washington D.C. Does America become actively involved to finish off Iran or not. However, this is a false narrative that many are falling for. Presidents need a range of options, not simply “bomb or not bomb”. Israel has not reached the end of the two-week campaign they announced on June 12. The Israelis have eliminated almost every leadership personality except for the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Yes, Iran is returning some fire, but it’s a pittance in return for the escalation dominance the Israelis have demonstrated.
The compelling need for immediate American action is not clear. Fortunately, Steve Bannon had lunch with President Trump which has pumped the brakes on those pushing immediate action. President Trump has announced a two week decision period, some late night hosts have made fun of this, but it is a wise increment of time. Imprudent National Security leaders are rushed and easily fall prey to “JDAMS/Tomahawk Giddiness”. Putting a Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAMS) or Tomahawk on target is easy, visual, and satisfying. One problem with that. It is not the end state and does not resolve matters. Few ask, what is next?
The Real Question on Iran – What’s Next?
When making complex decisions in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) situations, it is the duty of the national security professional to ask what is next – repeatedly. If you cannot clearly answer the “What’s next?” question for the next three to five iterations – it means the decision memorandum is not ready to bring to the President.
The supposed issue is whether to bring in the GBU-57, 30,000-pound conventional, deep penetrating bomb to destroy the underground nuclear enrichment facilities at Fordow and related nuclear work at Natanz. Currently the American B-2 Bomber is the only aircraft that can drop the GBU-57. There are only about 20 B-2s in service and it looks like only 20 GBU-57s were made. These are big, complex bombs that are very accurate and built in a re-enforced manner where they can drive deep into the ground before exploding. They are the largest, non-nuclear devices in the world.
Here are just a few of the “What’s Next?” questions:
- The U.S. drops the GBU-57 and destroys Fordow and Natanz deep underground nuclear sites: What’s next?
- The U.S. drops the GBU-57s, destroys the sites, and the fragments of the Iranian regime refuse to surrender: What’s next?
- The U.S. drops the GBU-57s, and the sites are not destroyed: What’s next?
- The U.S. B-2 delivering the GBU-57s is shot down and the aircrew captured: What’s next?
- The U.S. strikes Fordow and Natanz with or without positive results and China flies nuclear warheads into Iran for mounting on Iran’s surviving missiles: What’s next?
The Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was briefed in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. I have immense respect for Tulsi and her immediate staff, but we also have a very serious issue with Iranian Intelligence penetration of the U.S. Government and Intelligence Community by Rob Malley and all of his Deep State straphangers. Tulsi still does not have a trusted counter-intelligence director, therefore a clean sweep of Deep Staters is still in progress and those remaining can sway intelligence analysis.
Presidents always need a range of options from their advisors
There is always a need for thoughtful, reasoned analysis on the decision memos that are fed to the President. Multiple options are always needed, if the options are only “Course of Action A” or “Course of Action B” – the White House Chief of Staff should obliterate the decision memo with a red pen and kick it back for “Substantive Re-work”. The National Security Council will just have to sleep faster and do more thorough work for the next revision due first thing in the morning.
With modern Global Positioning System and Inertial Navigation Systems for JDAMs or Tomahawk cruise missile, it truly is a one bomb, one target era. There are many tools in the tool kit of DIMEFIL, meaning Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, Finance, Intelligence, and Law Enforcement options. We’ve been through two wars in Iraq – both ended with loss of American blood and treasure with little to show in return. The situation is a bit different this time, previously, Iran stepped into the vacuum twice created by the U.S. and exploited Middle East conflict for their own purposes which evolved into Iran becoming a core Chinese colony/proxy state. If the current Iranian regime falls, this does beg the question “Who’s Next?” this time if the Iranian regime goes away.
What is China flying into Iran?
If China loses Iran, they lose their energy lifeline. Almost 100% of Iranian gas and oil goes to China – in violation of international and U.S. Sanctions. If the U.S. Navy was healthier, these shipments could easily be blocked in sanction enforcement actions. In the World on Fire, stoked by the Chinese Communist Party, Iran is the key Chinese proxy. Much of the cyber mayhem inside of America derives from Iranian regime hackers on behalf of China. China is conducting a mini-Berlin Airlift to sustain the regime. What is being flown to Iran? Gordon Chang has posited that they could be viable nuclear warheads for the remaining Iranian ballistic missiles sourced from China.
Israel is doing magnificently so far. They are close to eliminating the entire regime and/or having the populace rise and finish the job. If the Israelis really need the GBU-57, here’s one option that keeps America directly out of the fray: Roosevelt brought massive amounts of war material to the Canadian border in pre-WWII days, put the cargo a few inches across the border into Canada, and it was up to the British to take it from there. If the Israelis really want the GBU-57, fly a few to Israel and at that point, it’s up to them to figure out how to deliver it. We can continue negotiations with whoever is caretaker of the Iranian regime for the next few minutes.
All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.
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